Calming the Ferghana Valley: Development and Dialogue for Central Asia

The Ferghana Valley, a region spanning parts of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, is home to 20 percent of Central Asia's entire population and has become a focal point of the potential conflicts in the former Soviet Union's Central Asian territories. This report, produced by the Council on Foreign Relations' Center for Preventive Action (CPA) as part of its Preventive Action Reports series, assesses the region's volatility and the possibility of instability spreading throughout the broader Central Asian landscape.

Central Asia, as a whole, is a region that is both potentially explosive and widely misunderstood. Vast in size, larger than Eastern and Western Europe combined, and with a rapidly growing population of over 50 million people, the region has become increasingly important to U.S. national security, commercial, and foreign policy interests. It is endowed with vast resources, including oil, gas, gold, and other valuable commodities, but it is also plagued by the persistence of relatively corrupt and authoritarian governments.

The Ferghana Valley, in particular, has experienced a rise in religious and ethnic tensions, heightening the risk of conflict. This report, sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations and The Century Foundation, examines the Ferghana Valley through the prism of its volatility, underscoring the potential for instability in this region to spread more widely throughout Central Asia.

Central Asia's strategic importance to the United States cannot be overstated. The region has become a source and transit route for narcotics, as well as a potential source of nuclear and other materials that could pose a threat to global security. The fierce conflicts in neighboring Tajikistan and Afghanistan have also contributed to the region's volatility, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

This report, the fourth volume in the CPA's Preventive Action Reports series, provides a comprehensive analysis of the Ferghana Valley's dynamics and the implications for the broader Central Asian region. It offers insights into the persistent authoritarian nature of the governments in the region, the potential for religious and ethnic tensions to escalate, and the strategic importance of the region to the United States and the international community.

The Ferghana Valley's significance extends beyond its immediate geography. As a microcosm of the larger Central Asian landscape, the region's challenges and complexities reflect the broader issues facing the former Soviet Union's Central Asian territories. This report serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, analysts, and those interested in understanding the complex and evolving dynamics of this strategically important region.

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